The college football universe centers on the Georgia Dome in
Atlanta Saturday as defending national champ Alabama takes on Georgia in a 4pm
kickoff for the 2012 Southeastern Conference crown. The
game is effectively a national championship semi-final, with the winner
virtually guaranteed a berth in the BCS National Championship Game in Miami in
January. The odds makers have made
Alabama at least a touchdown favorite entering the game and based on this
campaign’s numbers – rightfully so.
People, who know me, know I’m a sports numbers kind of guy. While the game is not all about numbers, the numbers seldom lie. So as a life-long Georgia fan, I began comparing national NCAA statistics in an effort find a way my Dawgs might pull this thing off. Searching for a statistical advantage for the Bulldogs is not quite as difficult as finding the proverbial ‘needle in a haystack’, but almost.
Most college football fans know about the Crimson Tide’s defensive prowess. They lead the nation statistically in multiple categories, including scoring defense and red zone defense. The Tide is also second in the nation in rushing defense, allowing a mere 2.63 yards per rush and a stingy 77 yards per contest. Bama tops the nation in first down defense, is fifth in passing efficiency defense, and ninth in the country in turnover margin. Georgia, who has one of the most talented collections of defensive players in the NCAA, trails Alabama in every one of these statistical categories.
People, who know me, know I’m a sports numbers kind of guy. While the game is not all about numbers, the numbers seldom lie. So as a life-long Georgia fan, I began comparing national NCAA statistics in an effort find a way my Dawgs might pull this thing off. Searching for a statistical advantage for the Bulldogs is not quite as difficult as finding the proverbial ‘needle in a haystack’, but almost.
Most college football fans know about the Crimson Tide’s defensive prowess. They lead the nation statistically in multiple categories, including scoring defense and red zone defense. The Tide is also second in the nation in rushing defense, allowing a mere 2.63 yards per rush and a stingy 77 yards per contest. Bama tops the nation in first down defense, is fifth in passing efficiency defense, and ninth in the country in turnover margin. Georgia, who has one of the most talented collections of defensive players in the NCAA, trails Alabama in every one of these statistical categories.
The Alabama comparison with Georgia improves slightly for
the Bulldogs on the other side of the football, but not by much. Georgia quarterback, Aaron Murray, leads the
nation in QB rating (177.2) but Bama’s A.J. McCarron is second with a rating of
176.3. It is a virtual dead heat. Murray has thrown for about 60 more yards per
game and five more touchdowns, but Alabama leans more heavily on their talented
offensive line late in games to close out victories. Georgia has the one-two rushing punch of
freshmen Todd Gurley (1138 yards / 14 TD) and Keith Marshall (720 yards / 8
TD), but the Tide gets slightly better results from Eddie Lacy (1001 yards / 14
TD) and T.J. Yeldon (940 yards / 12 TD).
Murray has TD passes to 10 different receivers and McCarron has scoring
strikes to eight.
Neither squad has a notable special teams’ advantage. Alabama returns kickoffs slightly better, but
the kickoff coverage edge goes narrowly to the Bulldogs. The Crimson Tide’s punting game has a
statistical edge, but only a difference of 3 net yards per punt. Alabama has used a pair of placekickers to
Georgia’s primary use of one, but the long field goal for both teams is 52
yards and the success percentage of kicks over 40 yards by the two teams is
almost identical.
So where can we look for the game to be decided if we are trying to find a Bulldogs’ victory? For that answer, let’s take a glance at the most recent Alabama losses and their close call with LSU.
Penalties
In Alabama’s win over LSU this year, the Tide had a seven to one advantage in first downs via penalty, but in their loss to Texas A&M, the Aggies had three penalty first downs to none by Alabama. This may seem like a trivial stat for many, but the mental side and emotional attitude change caused by these plays is big, not to mention the momentum acquired or lost. Alabama has the reputation of being highly disciplined; Georgia has not always displayed that attribute. In fact, Georgia has almost twice as many overall penalties as Alabama this season (82 UGA / 48 ALA). Pay attention Saturday to the first downs by penalty advantage. In a high pressure atmosphere, this could be one of the difference makers.
So where can we look for the game to be decided if we are trying to find a Bulldogs’ victory? For that answer, let’s take a glance at the most recent Alabama losses and their close call with LSU.
Penalties
In Alabama’s win over LSU this year, the Tide had a seven to one advantage in first downs via penalty, but in their loss to Texas A&M, the Aggies had three penalty first downs to none by Alabama. This may seem like a trivial stat for many, but the mental side and emotional attitude change caused by these plays is big, not to mention the momentum acquired or lost. Alabama has the reputation of being highly disciplined; Georgia has not always displayed that attribute. In fact, Georgia has almost twice as many overall penalties as Alabama this season (82 UGA / 48 ALA). Pay attention Saturday to the first downs by penalty advantage. In a high pressure atmosphere, this could be one of the difference makers.
Third Down Efficiency
Big games that stay close usually come down to key plays. The ability to sustain drives is generally reliant on converting third down or even fourth down plays. TAMU was 11 of 18 on third down conversions against Alabama, while the Tide was only 7 of 15. For the season, Georgia and Alabama have converted at an almost identical rate of efficiency and the stats for getting off the field on third down (defensive third down efficiency) are also comparable. Expect first down to be a key indicator for Alabama. If the Tide has running success on first down, it could be a long day for the Dawgs. If Georgia can force McCarron into more third and four or more situations – advantage Bulldogs. Conversely, Georgia has to find enough first down success to keep pressure off Murray in obvious passing situations. Alabama does not have the pass rush of South Carolina (Gamecocks are third in the nation in sacks), but they are a talented group and will get their share of sacks if not required to respect the run. Additionally, Murray has struggled most with any defense that has been able to get in his face and hurry his decisions and throws.
Big games that stay close usually come down to key plays. The ability to sustain drives is generally reliant on converting third down or even fourth down plays. TAMU was 11 of 18 on third down conversions against Alabama, while the Tide was only 7 of 15. For the season, Georgia and Alabama have converted at an almost identical rate of efficiency and the stats for getting off the field on third down (defensive third down efficiency) are also comparable. Expect first down to be a key indicator for Alabama. If the Tide has running success on first down, it could be a long day for the Dawgs. If Georgia can force McCarron into more third and four or more situations – advantage Bulldogs. Conversely, Georgia has to find enough first down success to keep pressure off Murray in obvious passing situations. Alabama does not have the pass rush of South Carolina (Gamecocks are third in the nation in sacks), but they are a talented group and will get their share of sacks if not required to respect the run. Additionally, Murray has struggled most with any defense that has been able to get in his face and hurry his decisions and throws.
Sacks Allowed
Texas A&M sacked McCarron four times in their win while Alabama was only able to sack Johnny ‘Football’ Manziel twice. When South Carolina built the quick 21-0 lead in their victory over Georgia, they were still only able to sack Murray twice. The Gamecocks’ pressure, however, was in the UGA quarterback’s face the remainder of the day and created havoc for any comeback attempt. Statistically, Alabama yields fewer sacks than the Dawgs, but dependence on the passing game probably accounts for the slight difference. Alabama’s talented offensive line is built for run first. If Georgia can force the Tide into some passing situations and get to McCarron a few times, the skilled back end of the UGA defense has a great chance to make some big plays.
Texas A&M sacked McCarron four times in their win while Alabama was only able to sack Johnny ‘Football’ Manziel twice. When South Carolina built the quick 21-0 lead in their victory over Georgia, they were still only able to sack Murray twice. The Gamecocks’ pressure, however, was in the UGA quarterback’s face the remainder of the day and created havoc for any comeback attempt. Statistically, Alabama yields fewer sacks than the Dawgs, but dependence on the passing game probably accounts for the slight difference. Alabama’s talented offensive line is built for run first. If Georgia can force the Tide into some passing situations and get to McCarron a few times, the skilled back end of the UGA defense has a great chance to make some big plays.
Big Play Potential
Both offenses are obviously very good. The Alabama O-line has NFL-caliber talent and will be expected to control the line of scrimmage, but Georgia’s opposing side is big enough and talented enough to give the Tide some problems. Expect any big plays from Alabama to come off play action. If UGA commits too many resources to help stop the run, over-the-top pass plays could be significant. The Bulldogs may have more big play potential with explosive players at running back and wide receiver, but the ‘big boys’ --tackle-to-tackle -- will decide whether or not those impact plays occur. Both TAMU and LSU were successful moving the ball against Alabama this year. LSU amassed 431 total yards to the Tide’s 331 and TAMU even out-rushed Alabama on their way to a 431-418 total yards advantage. Those numbers indicate the Crimson Tide defense is not impossible to infiltrate. Georgia has a chance to move the ball, but they will need to finish drives – especially early in the game – to cultivate the attitude of an upset.
Turnovers
It is cliché, but turnovers are also a key ingredient of these games. Alabama and Georgia are among the nation’s leaders in turnover margin. The Crimson Tide is ninth (+1.17) and the Bulldogs are nineteenth (+0.75) in the nation. TAMU did not have a turnover in their defeat of the Tide. The Aggies benefited from two interceptions and a fumble recovery. LSU (no turnovers) stayed close partially because of a plus-2 turnover advantage. So you can anticipate the turnover advantage to ultimately be reflected on the scoreboard whether the game turns into a defensive struggle or an offensive slugfest.
Etc.Both offenses are obviously very good. The Alabama O-line has NFL-caliber talent and will be expected to control the line of scrimmage, but Georgia’s opposing side is big enough and talented enough to give the Tide some problems. Expect any big plays from Alabama to come off play action. If UGA commits too many resources to help stop the run, over-the-top pass plays could be significant. The Bulldogs may have more big play potential with explosive players at running back and wide receiver, but the ‘big boys’ --tackle-to-tackle -- will decide whether or not those impact plays occur. Both TAMU and LSU were successful moving the ball against Alabama this year. LSU amassed 431 total yards to the Tide’s 331 and TAMU even out-rushed Alabama on their way to a 431-418 total yards advantage. Those numbers indicate the Crimson Tide defense is not impossible to infiltrate. Georgia has a chance to move the ball, but they will need to finish drives – especially early in the game – to cultivate the attitude of an upset.
Turnovers
It is cliché, but turnovers are also a key ingredient of these games. Alabama and Georgia are among the nation’s leaders in turnover margin. The Crimson Tide is ninth (+1.17) and the Bulldogs are nineteenth (+0.75) in the nation. TAMU did not have a turnover in their defeat of the Tide. The Aggies benefited from two interceptions and a fumble recovery. LSU (no turnovers) stayed close partially because of a plus-2 turnover advantage. So you can anticipate the turnover advantage to ultimately be reflected on the scoreboard whether the game turns into a defensive struggle or an offensive slugfest.
Alabama is battle-tested and will be expected to be the more comfortable team in the big-game atmosphere, but don’t discount the senior leadership of the Georgia unit. ‘Our team, our time, no regrets’ has been the motto for these Bulldogs in 2012. They stumbled badly at South Carolina, but have rebounded nicely to salvage a shot in this de facto national semi-final. To have a shot at walking out of the Georgia Dome with a trip to Miami and a matchup with Notre Dame, the Dawgs will need their only regret to be that October result in Columbia.
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