Overcoming Alabama

The college football universe centers on the Georgia Dome in Atlanta Saturday as defending national champ Alabama takes on Georgia in a 4pm kickoff for the 2012 Southeastern Conference crown.   The game is effectively a national championship semi-final, with the winner virtually guaranteed a berth in the BCS National Championship Game in Miami in January.  The odds makers have made Alabama at least a touchdown favorite entering the game and based on this campaign’s numbers – rightfully so.

People, who know me, know I’m a sports numbers kind of guy.  While the game is not all about numbers, the numbers seldom lie.  So as a life-long Georgia fan, I began comparing national NCAA statistics in an effort find a way my Dawgs might pull this thing off.  Searching for a statistical advantage for the Bulldogs is not quite as difficult as finding the proverbial ‘needle in a haystack’, but almost.

Most college football fans know about the Crimson Tide’s defensive prowess.  They lead the nation statistically in multiple categories, including scoring defense and red zone defense.  The Tide is also second in the nation in rushing defense, allowing a mere 2.63 yards per rush and a stingy 77 yards per contest.  Bama tops the nation in first down defense, is fifth in passing efficiency defense, and ninth in the country in turnover margin.  Georgia, who has one of the most talented collections of defensive players in the NCAA, trails Alabama in every one of these statistical categories.

The Alabama comparison with Georgia improves slightly for the Bulldogs on the other side of the football, but not by much.  Georgia quarterback, Aaron Murray, leads the nation in QB rating (177.2) but Bama’s A.J. McCarron is second with a rating of 176.3.  It is a virtual dead heat.  Murray has thrown for about 60 more yards per game and five more touchdowns, but Alabama leans more heavily on their talented offensive line late in games to close out victories.  Georgia has the one-two rushing punch of freshmen Todd Gurley (1138 yards / 14 TD) and Keith Marshall (720 yards / 8 TD), but the Tide gets slightly better results from Eddie Lacy (1001 yards / 14 TD) and T.J. Yeldon (940 yards / 12 TD).  Murray has TD passes to 10 different receivers and McCarron has scoring strikes to eight.

Neither squad has a notable special teams’ advantage.  Alabama returns kickoffs slightly better, but the kickoff coverage edge goes narrowly to the Bulldogs.  The Crimson Tide’s punting game has a statistical edge, but only a difference of 3 net yards per punt.  Alabama has used a pair of placekickers to Georgia’s primary use of one, but the long field goal for both teams is 52 yards and the success percentage of kicks over 40 yards by the two teams is almost identical. 

So where can we look for the game to be decided if we are trying to find a Bulldogs’ victory?  For that answer, let’s take a glance at the most recent Alabama losses and their close call with LSU.

Penalties
In Alabama’s win over LSU this year, the Tide had a seven to one advantage in first downs via penalty, but in their loss to Texas A&M, the Aggies had three penalty first downs to none by Alabama.  This may seem like a trivial stat for many, but the mental side and emotional attitude change caused by these plays is big, not to mention the momentum acquired or lost.  Alabama has the reputation of being highly disciplined; Georgia has not always displayed that attribute.  In fact, Georgia has almost twice as many overall penalties as Alabama this season (82 UGA / 48 ALA).  Pay attention Saturday to the first downs by penalty advantage.  In a high pressure atmosphere, this could be one of the difference makers.

Third Down Efficiency
Big games that stay close usually come down to key plays.   The ability to sustain drives is generally reliant on converting third down or even fourth down plays.  TAMU was 11 of 18 on third down conversions against Alabama, while the Tide was only 7 of 15.  For the season, Georgia and Alabama have converted at an almost identical rate of efficiency and the stats for getting off the field on third down (defensive third down efficiency) are also comparable.  Expect first down to be a key indicator for Alabama.  If the Tide has running success on first down, it could be a long day for the Dawgs.  If Georgia can force McCarron into more third and four or more situations – advantage Bulldogs.  Conversely, Georgia has to find enough first down success to keep pressure off Murray in obvious passing situations.  Alabama does not have the pass rush of South Carolina (Gamecocks are third in the nation in sacks), but they are a talented group and will get their share of sacks if not required to respect the run.  Additionally, Murray has struggled most with any defense that has been able to get in his face and hurry his decisions and throws.

Sacks Allowed
Texas A&M sacked McCarron four times in their win while Alabama was only able to sack Johnny ‘Football’ Manziel twice.  When South Carolina built the quick 21-0 lead in their victory over Georgia, they were still only able to sack Murray twice.  The Gamecocks’ pressure, however, was in the UGA quarterback’s face the remainder of the day and created havoc for any comeback attempt.  Statistically, Alabama yields fewer sacks than the Dawgs, but dependence on the passing game probably accounts for the slight difference.  Alabama’s talented offensive line is built for run first.  If Georgia can force the Tide into some passing situations and get to McCarron a few times, the skilled back end of the UGA defense has a great chance to make some big plays.

Big Play Potential
Both offenses are obviously very good.  The Alabama O-line has NFL-caliber talent and will be expected to control the line of scrimmage, but Georgia’s opposing side is big enough and talented enough to give the Tide some problems.  Expect any big plays from Alabama to come off play action.  If UGA commits too many resources to help stop the run, over-the-top pass plays could be significant.  The Bulldogs may have more big play potential with explosive players at running back and wide receiver, but the ‘big boys’ --tackle-to-tackle -- will decide whether or not those impact plays occur.  Both TAMU and LSU were successful moving the ball against Alabama this year.  LSU amassed 431 total yards to the Tide’s 331 and TAMU even out-rushed Alabama on their way to a 431-418 total yards advantage.  Those numbers indicate the Crimson Tide defense is not impossible to infiltrate.  Georgia has a chance to move the ball, but they will need to finish drives – especially early in the game – to cultivate the attitude of an upset.

Turnovers
It is cliché, but turnovers are also a key ingredient of these games.  Alabama and Georgia are among the nation’s leaders in turnover margin.  The Crimson Tide is ninth (+1.17) and the Bulldogs are nineteenth (+0.75) in the nation.  TAMU did not have a turnover in their defeat of the Tide.  The Aggies benefited from two interceptions and a fumble recovery.  LSU (no turnovers) stayed close partially because of a plus-2 turnover advantage.  So you can anticipate the turnover advantage to ultimately be reflected on the scoreboard whether the game turns into a defensive struggle or an offensive slugfest.

Etc.
Alabama is battle-tested and will be expected to be the more comfortable team in the big-game atmosphere, but don’t discount the senior leadership of the Georgia unit.  ‘Our team, our time, no regrets’ has been the motto for these Bulldogs in 2012.  They stumbled badly at South Carolina, but have rebounded nicely to salvage a shot in this de facto national semi-final.  To have a shot at walking out of the Georgia Dome with a trip to Miami and a matchup with Notre Dame, the Dawgs will need their only regret to be that October result in Columbia.

Bulldogs will take the next step

You can expect the Georgia Bulldogs to continue their winning ways against Georgia Tech on Saturday.  Here's why:

Eye on the prize
The Bulldogs control their own destiny. While Coach Paul Johnson and the Yellow Jackets have 'bigger fish to fry' again with their ACC championship game coming up, Georgia has both SEC and National Championship aspirations. Georgia has been known to start slowly in the Mark Richt era in this game and have started slowly in most games this year, but Richt's Dawgs have not been caught looking past the Jackets. Part of the reason for the slow starts against Tech has been adjusting to the triple option and the frustrations of facing the cut blocking style. Playing Georgia Southern last week may help with that adjustment, but Tech will come at the Dawgs with better athletes than GSU brought last week.

Defense matters
Georgia's defense has continued to improve. The Bulldogs have allowed only 8.25 points per game over the past four weeks after early season struggles against South Carolina, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Tech probably needs to score 40 or more to win a high scoring shootout. The Georgia defense would have to digress and turnovers would have to contribute for the Jackets to run up that total.

More defense matters
There are two good offenses in this game, but only one good defense. Georgia Tech has put up 424 points this year and is the fourth leading rushing team in the country, but Georgia is only 10 points off that pace and has a much more balanced attack that ranks ahead of the Jackets in total offense. Expect Georgia to attack Tech through the air early, then use the running game once they build a lead. The Jackets rank ninth in the ACC in pass defense and have actually given up more points per game since firing Groh as defensive coordinator. They've picked off passes in 10 straight games, but there's a reason -- teams are throwing more against them. Both teams will score, but the difference will be turnovers and forcing defensive stops. Georgia has more high calibre, athletic players on the defensive side of the ball and that will show up over four quarters. Expect Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree to have huge games.

Field Position
If season-long statistics mean anything, Georgia should control the field position battle. Georgia Tech has struggled with kickoffs, kickoff coverage, and net punting average. Georgia forces opponents to punt 6.6 times per game while Tech is the 7th worst team in the nation (of 124) at forcing an opponent to punt -- only 3.4 times per game. The Jackets are 111th in the country in net punting and 110th in the nation in FG% with a season long of only 35 yards.

Not just a decade of success
It's Good, Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate. It's Senior Day for a cohesive group of Georgia seniors. The Bulldogs are undefeated (16-0) against Tech when they have won or shared the SEC or SEC East titles. The home crowd will not disappoint or leave disappointed.


GEORGIA 44, GEORGIA TECH 28

Five things I learned watching the NFL on Thanksgiving Day

1. The NFL has the goofiest challenge flag rule.  It negates any replay opportunity when a coach throws his challenge flag on a scoring play.  How has this not happened in the past?  It has now occurred twice in the last five days.  It cost the Falcons a 15-yard penalty on Sunday.  Then it may have cost the Lions a game and Lions' coach Jim Schwartz his job on Thanksgiving Day.  The NFL has already indicated it will change the rule before next season.  I understand they were trying to keep coaches from "showing up" officials, but NFL rules gurus failed to account for the emotion of such plays. College football replay rules are far superior to the NFL's rules and don't make the game any longer.
2. Robert Griffin, III is having an incredible NFL rookie season.  Even better than Andrew Luck (who seems to be getting more national media attention).  In case you missed it, RG3 threw for 311 yards Thanksgiving Day and built a huge halftime lead over the Dallas Cowboys.  He leads the NFL in TD passes of 20 yards or more and is a huge threat with his feet (both rushing and escaping).  He's fourth in QB Rating, third in completion percentage, and leads the NFL in yards per pass attempted.  Give the Redskins time to build some more talent around him and watch out!  (but weren't we saying this last year about Cam Newton?)
3. The Houston Texans are nearly identical to the Atlanta Falcons in one respect....  they've learned to find ways to win games.  Both the Texans and Falcons have had chances to fall back into the pack in their respective conferences the past couple of weeks, but both have found ways to pull out wins in games they probably should have lost.  Both teams have remained at the top of conference standings, but based on the Falcons' recent playoff history (no wins in the Matt Ryan era), that doesn't bode well for the post-season for either team.
4. Bill Belichick is a lot smarter than Rex Ryan.  (I know, I know . .  that's no revelation.)  The Jets used additional defensive backs on almost every down, didn't adjust, and the Patriots ran easily down their throats (when they weren't running in turnovers).  Belichick also became the 8th coach in NFL history with at least 200 career wins and is the 4th fastest to accomplish that feat.
5. The Detroit Lions need to consider a different uniform jersey supplier or material.  Their Honolulu Blue jerseys became two-tone blue yesterday with perspiration.  It is not an attractive look for the 'big boys' along the offensive and defensive fronts.  With all today's fabric technology, you would think the Lions would use a different material.

Runner Up thought of the day:
Chris Collinsworth was more humorous in the Pats/Jets game than I've ever noticed.  His best line was during the Jets' crowd chant of "We want Tebow.. We want Tebow..."  Collinsworth was heard saying:  "I think Mark Sanchez might be joining in on that chant."

It appears the SEC will win a seventh consecutive national title

Only two weeks ago, the Southeastern Conference was dead in the water.  The conference's chance of winning a coveted seventh straight football national championship was over.  With three unbeaten teams remaining, it was apparent 'The King' was dead.  If only two of the three -- Notre Dame, Kansas State, or Oregon -- finished the college football season unbeaten, the SEC would be relegated to lesser bowl games in December and January. The run of championships was over.

Well it didn't happen.  On a mid-November Saturday night, Kansas State fell to 5-loss Baylor in blowout fashion and the Oregon Ducks stubbed their webbed toes at home against Stanford.  That sequence swung the national title door wide open again and now 'The King' is ready to regain the throne.

Now to be quite honest, the SEC has not enjoyed it's greatest season.  The bottom half of the conference has been miserable.  Kentucky, Missouri, Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Ole Miss have all been pretty bad, but no worse than the bottom feeders of the SEC's rival leagues.  Also, there are identifiable flaws in the league's top three national championship contenders.  Alabama, Georgia, and Florida have each stumbled, but most people now agree that Notre Dame belongs in the national championship game because they have remained unbeaten and have taken on notable opponents from most of the remaining conferences.  With that said, here is what again validates the SEC.  Alabama or Georgia will be favored in Miami against Notre Dame.  And if the Gators get in, they will be facing one of the other two from the SEC.  Odds-makers do not care about conference affilliation.  They set odds to balance the betting sides and they do not miss outright most of the time.  In fact, greater point spreads predict greater accuracy in predicting winners.  So it looks like a near-lock for another SEC national crown.

In reality, it is a down year across the nation in finding a dominant team.  Let's not forget, USC (No. 1) and Oklahoma (No. 5) were in the top five when the season began.  Now the Sooners have two losses (ranked No. 14) and the Trojans are completely out of the poll with four losses.  To their credit, only the Irish have taken care of business and can head into a championship game without challengers to their rightful spot in Miami.  For all the rest, a berth in the title game comes with questions of worth.

The run of six consecutive national titles yields merit in an overall down year, and it's not just one SEC team doing all the winning.  So if a conference gets the 'benefit of doubt', it is the SEC.  Let's not forget, the conference didn't get it's reputation by simply playing in national championship games.  It won them.  And the conference has only placed two teams in the championship game once.  It just happened to be last year and is at the forefront of many minds.  In this run of titles, LSU, Florida, Auburn, and Alabama have each lifted the crystal ball and Georgia had claim to a title game spot in 2007 but LSU was awarded the slot and beat Ohio State for the championship.

SEC critics, who were celebrating two weeks ago when the conference appeared locked out of a title chance, are now screaming the same old complaints.  Some claim the media (ESPN and CBS in particular) is so biased that it influences poll voters.  Still others claim the SEC has 'cracked the BCS computer code' by scheduling weak, non-conference foes and building in those games late in the season. 

The media influence argument is a slap in the face to voters.  Only one of the human polls is totally media based -- the AP -- and not all of those media representatives have ties with CBS or ESPN.  In fact, most are with rival or competing media outlets.  Are all those media voters 'brainwashed' by the hype of other people in their own business?

The other two polls are comprised of different personnel.  The Coaches' Poll is made up of coaches representing all conferences and regions of the country and the Harris Poll is comprised of over 100 former coaches, players, media, and administrators with statistically reliable representation of all 11 conferences and independents.  So it is silly to claim the polls favor the SEC due to some economic conspiracy.

If we want to look at voter bias by coaches, studies have already been conducted.  The United States Sports Academy results showed that all coaches between 2005 and 2010 voted with some bias for their own team and their own conference (1-3 poll positions), but coaches at SEC schools showed no significantly greater variation from the mean and final results than coaches in the ACC, B1G, or Big 12 and less bias than coaches in the WAC, MWC, and Pac-12.

Regarding the computers and scheduling, the SEC has no monopoly on scheduling weaker, non-conference opponents.  Let's just look at the contenders (Top 10 BCS) from other conferences this year.  Oregon's out of conference schedule included Arkansas State, Fresno State, and Tennessee Tech.  Kansas State played Missouri State and North Texas (I'll give them credit for Miami -- most years).  Stanford took out Duke and San Jose State before losing on a controversial goal line call at Notre Dame.  Florida State rolled up wins over Murray State, Savannah State, and South Florida.  They have in-state rival Florida remaining. So if the BCS computer code has been cracked with schedule timing, is this an admission that SEC coaches and athletic directors are just smarter than the rest of the country when it comes to scheduling?  Maybe the SEC has developed a scheduling model that powers from other conferences should copy.

Now back to the most likely BCS National Championship scenarios.

It is an obvious result, but studies have shown that the greater the point spread by oddsmakers -- the greater their accuracy in predicting the outright winner.  In other words, a 31-point favorite actually wins a game 98.7 percent of the time while a 3 or less-point favorite actually wins the game 51.1% of the time.  Since covering the Vegas point spread is not a requirement for winning the national championship, the projected point spread is a pretty good indicator of the expected winner.  Here's the latest I could find from oddsmakers regarding the current contenders and pending games:

Notre Dame opened as a 7-point favorite over USC (oddsmaker accuracy = 65.9%)
Alabama is a 31-point favorite over Auburn (oddsmaker accuracy = 98.7%)
Georgia is a 13-point favorite over Georgia Tech (oddsmaker accuracy = 79.9%)
Florida State is an 8-point favorite over Florida (oddsmaker accuracy = 73.6%)
Alabama is a 7-point favorite to eliminate Georgia (oddsmaker accuracy = 65.9%)
Alabama is a 10-point favorite if they meet Notre Dame (oddsmaker accuracy = 74.6%)
Georgia is a 1-point favorite if they meet Notre Dame (oddsmaker accuracy = 51.1%)
NOTE: Should Notre Dame and Florida both lose this week, the opponent for the SEC Champion would likely be a one-loss Oregon, one-loss Kansas State, one-loss Notre Dame, or one-loss Florida State.

There you have it, in all likelihood we will watch Alabama roll past Notre Dame for the SEC's seventh consecutive national championship in January and the case for all the 'left out' one-loss teams will continue to be debated.  The best news for college football fans, however, is none of those percentages listed above are 100%.  Stealing a Jim Carey line from the film 'Dumb and Dumber', "So you're telling me there's a chance! . . . Yeah!"